What is a good Deal?

The few times I've watched Deal or No Deal...I've painfully watched contestants give up large sums of money in hopes of the big $1 million. It's amazing how caught up contestants get in the frenzy of the chance of winning $1 million. I frustratingly watch thinking I should pull out my computer and start modeling this on Excel to figure out the probabilities and expected outcomes. Alas I think I would find myself too extreme, if I go to analyzing a game show, so I can never bring myself to do it (though i secretly try to do it in my head). Thankfully some statisticians did it for me. Read here for their findings as printed in the USA Today.

What I found most interesting is that without calculators, the constestants got surprisingly close to the expected outcomes. The average values of all 26 cases is $131,477. The average from the 47 contestants has been $116,763, only 11% lower than the average. You have to assume that the house is taking some of that spread. So in my opinion I think the contestants are astoundingly accurate. Maybe we aren't so bad at math afterall...and when it comes to money we might just be mathematical geniuses. No longer will I shout in frustration when a contestant goes for the big one, because I know that in the end, the average contestant will be ok.